[Public Health] Researcher in Taiwan Finds Formula to Predict Probability of Strokes

[Public Health] Researcher in Taiwan Finds Formula to Predict Probability of Strokes (Chinese Version)

CNA - Focus Taiwan (2012/11/11) A Taiwan researcher said November 11 he has come up with a formula to predict with an 80 percent accuracy rate the chances of someone getting a stroke within 10 years, based on their medical records.

After analyzing the medical records of 500,000 people, Chi-pang WEN, a researcher at the National Health Research Institute said, he found that there are five main factors relating to the probability of a stroke -- whether the person smokes, exercises, drinks alcohol, is a vegetarian, or is overweight.

The answers to these five questions, plus the data on blood pressure, blood sugar, cholesterol level, anemia, chronic kidney disease and uric acid levels, can help predict a stroke with an 80 accuracy rate, WEN said at a seminar.

If the answer is yes to all five basic questions, the person has a 45 percent chance of being hit by a stroke in 10 years, said WEN.

The likelihood of a stroke goes up to 93 percent if the individual also suffers from abnormal blood pressure and diabetes, he said. If other problems such high cholesterol, anemia, chronic kidney disease and high uric acid levels are included, the probability of suffering a stroke rises to 100 percent, he added.

For example, a 60-year-old male vegetarian with normal body weight, who smokes, drinks, and does not exercise, would have an 11.1 percent chance of suffering a stroke in the next 10 years, WEN said.

The probability will soar to 84.7 percent if the man answers yes to all five basic questions, but if he quits smoking, the probability will drop to 54.4 percent, the researcher said. It will fall further to below 20 percent if the man's cholesterol and blood pressure return to normal levels, WEN said.

While the ideal total cholesterol level for local people is between 200 mg/dL and 300 mg/dL, studies both at home and abroad show that vegetarians usually have a level of below 130 mg/dL -- which puts them at a risk twice as high as others of suffering a hemorrhagic stroke, he explained.

A reading of 160 mg/dL means a 50 percent chance higher than others of getting a hemorrhagic stroke, the researcher said.

Vegetarians tend to have lower cholesterol levels because they lack nutrients obtained from meat, he said. This does not just increase their chances of stroke but also of cancer, he added. He suggested that non-meat eaters eat a balanced diet and exercise more.



Reference:
CNA - Focus Taiwan 2012/11/11

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