MEPO Forum :: 亞太局勢

adaptor Wrote:
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> China Isn’t Overtaking America 
> 
> By MICHAEL A. LEVIMAY 13, 2014 
> The New York Times 
> http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/14/opinion/china-is
> nt-overtaking-america.html?_r=1 
> 
> 
> 
> NEW YORK — A report last month that China’s
> economy will soon become the world’s largest has
> sparked worries. Normally calm observers are
> taking the news as a sign that China is overtaking
> America as an economic power. 
> 
> But much as counting warships or troops often
> provides a misleading measure of military might,
> tallying up gross domestic product — the figure
> behind the latest headlines — yields a warped
> picture of China’s economic rise. 
> 
> By most meaningful yardsticks, China is still less
> economically powerful than the United States. The
> problem with the new numbers starts with how they
> compare economies’ sizes. The World Bank tables
> that show China passing the United States compare
> the two countries using “purchasing power
> parity,” which measures national incomes in
> terms of what they can buy at home. 
> 
> Because domestic spending is dominated by items
> such as food and housing that aren’t traded
> internationally, and because most goods and
> services are cheaper in China than in the United
> States, this comparison boosts China’s apparent
> economic strength. 
> 
> Yet compared using market exchange rates, which
> measure incomes in terms of what they can buy on
> international markets (where every country pays
> the same price), the United States’ economy
> remains nearly twice as big as China’s. Indeed
> it is this latter measure that matters most when
> comparing economic power. 
> 
> After all, one would never compare two
> countries’ military strengths on the basis of
> how well each could suppress a domestic rebellion
> rather than fight a foreign war, and one should
> not compare countries’ economic power on the
> basis of what a worker in each country can buy at
> home. 
> 
> When American and Chinese companies bid against
> each other to acquire resources or companies
> abroad, what matters is their wealth as measured
> by the global market. Oil suppliers, for example,
> don’t care if the $100 they get for a barrel
> sold to China can buy more rice in a Beijing
> market than at a shop in New York — they care
> about what their revenues are worth in the world
> market. 
> 
> Similarly, the attractiveness of the Chinese and
> American markets to foreign firms depends on the
> profits to be made in international terms, not as
> measured by purchasing power. 
> 
> The alarmism about China surpassing America also
> ignores the critical role of political and
> institutional strength and flexibility. One
> wouldn’t compare countries’ arsenals while
> ignoring their different states of disrepair —
> yet Chinese G.D.P. numbers ignore severe pollution
> problems that are driving successful Chinese
> abroad. Nor would one compare numbers of aircraft
> or troops without asking about the training,
> doctrine and organization necessary to mobilize
> them effectively in combat. China faces real
> challenges translating its economic resources into
> international influence. 
> 
> 
> *A version of this op-ed appears in print on May
> 14, 2014, in The International New York Times.