軍隊強勢和部落主義為埃及民主化障礙文　洪健昭　　中譯　戴雅真

The writing is on the wall for the Egyptians: their President Hosni Mubarak had to go. That much was clear, because Washington had finally decided to gracefully dislodgethe Egyptian autocrat from his 30-year rule overthe Arab world’s most populous country rocked byviolent protests by discontented people demanding aquick political change in Cairo. These people wanteddemocracy, which Mubarak had refused to grant.They believed they could oust Mubarak with UncleSam’s help just as Tunisia’s jasmine revolt got rid ofZine el-Abidine Ben Ali, who had to flee Tunis forexile after a 23-year reign.

對埃及人民來說，他們的總統穆巴拉克註定要下台。事態已經相當明顯，埃及人民發動示威抗議，在這股要求開羅政權儘速變天的聲浪當中，美國也終於決定，讓統治阿拉伯世界最多人口國家達30年之久的強人穆巴拉克，有個不至於太難看的下台。埃及人民要的是民主，穆巴拉克卻沒能給他們。突尼西亞發起茉莉花革命，趕跑專政23年的班阿里，埃及人民相信，在美國的幫助下，他們也能逼走穆巴拉克。

The question Uncle Sam is now facing is who isgoing to replace Mubarak. It's not very difficult toanswer. All Washington needs to do is to let Egypt'sall powerful army pick another Mubarak to continuethe line of authoritarian rule started by Maj. Gen. Mohammed Naguib in 1952. Naguib was shuntedaside by Col. Gamel Abdel Nasser, who was electedpresident in 1956. Nasser did pretty well – so muchso that he was hailed at one time as a candidate forkhalifah or caliph, the successor to Mohammad, thefounder of Islam who unified the Arab nation. Well,Nasser died without realizing his dream of a newcaliphate, one starter effort being to organize theUnited Arab Republic of Egypt and Syria and a looseFederation of Arab Republics of Egypt, Syria andLibya. Anwar Sadat, a vice president who took overfrom Nasser, aligned Egypt with the United States in1972 by ordering most of the 20,000 Soviet militaryadvisers and personnel to leave. Mubarak, a vicepresident, succeeded Sadat, who was assassinated in1981. Vice President Omar Suleiman or Field MarshalMohamed Hussein Tantawi, head of the militarycouncil, may come into power.

軍隊是唯一的安定力量

現在，美國面臨的問題是，誰要來當穆巴拉克的繼任者。這不是個很難回答的問題，華府只需要讓埃及掌握大權的軍隊選出另一個穆巴拉克，延續自1952年納吉布少將開創的專制政權。不久納吉布遭到納瑟上校架空而下台，納瑟本人在1952年當選總統。他做得相當出色，一度被視為「哈里發」的候選人，哈里發就是伊斯蘭教創始人、阿拉伯世界統一者─穆罕默德的繼承人。雖然納瑟死時未能完成當上新哈里發的大業，卻也推動埃及、敘利亞組成阿拉伯聯合共和國（United Arab Republic），並讓埃及、敘利亞和利比亞組成鬆散的阿拉伯聯邦共和國（Federation ofArab Republics）。繼任納瑟的副總統沙達特，在1972年下令境內2萬名蘇聯軍事顧問和人員中的大多數離境，藉此與美國修好。他在1981年遭暗殺身亡，時任副總統的穆巴拉克接任。目前來看，副總統蘇雷曼或軍事委員會主席譚他威則是可能的權力接班人。One thing Uncle Sam has learned is that heshouldn't pick the new Mubarak for the Egyptian armythat is the only stabilizing force in the land, whichboasts the world's oldest civilization. The UnitedSates selected the successor to Saddam Hussein inIraq. That's a very bad idea, and it failed to work. Asa matter of fact, President George W. Bush shouldn'thave started the Iraqi War in the first place. His father,George W. Bush, Sr., was much wiser. He suspendedOperation Desert Storm to let Hussein continue hisiron-fist rule, simply because Iraq, the land of CaliphHarun al-Racid of Arabian Nights fame, would beungovernable without the dictator. The Abbassids, ofwhom al-Racid was one, overthrew the Ummayadcaliphate in Damascus, and moved the capital toBaghdad. Together with Egypt, that produced thegreat leader Saladin who conquered Jerusalem to getthe Crusades kicked off, Syria and Iraq were the threecenters of power of the Arab world until the first oilshock in 1973 which pushed the kingdom of SaudiArabia to the fore.

在孕育著全世界最古老文明之一的埃及，軍隊是唯一的穩定力量。美國在中東政治上總算學到了一件事，就是別再替埃及軍隊選出又一個穆巴拉克。美國替伊拉克挑出海珊（SaddamHussein）的接班人，這是很糟的主意，而且沒有成功。事實上，小布希（George W. Bush）總統根本就不應該發動伊拉克戰爭。他的父親老布希比較聰明，老布希在美軍迫近巴格達時下令停止「沙漠風暴」作戰計畫，讓海珊得以繼續鐵腕統治伊拉克。因為若沒了這名獨裁者，這塊以《一千零一夜》而聞名全球的哈倫‧阿拉希德王（Caliph Harun al-Racid）的統御地將會難以駕馭。要知道，穆罕默德過世後，繼承的奧米亞王朝（Umayyad）被阿拔斯王朝（Abbasids）推翻，將首都從大馬士革遷至巴格達。而在埃及偉大君主薩拉丁（Saladin）的帶領下，阿拉伯人曾經征服耶路撒冷，驅逐十字軍。埃及、敘利亞和伊拉克成為阿拉伯世界的三大權力中心，直到1973年石油危機爆發，才促使沙烏地阿拉伯王國脫穎而出，為一大安定力量。

Just as eagerly as the Crusaders tried to recoverJerusalem, the Americans are attempting to extenddemocracy all over the world, to the Arab world inparticular. But their national interests have madeit necessary for the United States to grow far toocomfortable with an Arab world dominated byunmovable, abusive rulers like Hussein and Mubarak.American support for pro-Western oppressors assuresa steady flow of oil and helps keep Israel, a handiworkof President Harry S. Truman, secure in the hostileMiddle East.

美國國家利益勝過民主價值

美國好像急著收復耶路撒冷的十字軍，迫切想將民主推廣至全世界，尤其是阿拉伯世界。然而，國家利益卻又使美國必須讓海珊及穆巴拉克等冷酷、濫權的統治者坐大。美國支持親西方的暴君，以確保原油供應穩定不絕，並確保杜魯門總統一手催生的國家以色列，能在充滿敵意的中東生存。

In fact, Israel is quite secure, because its Arabneighbors can never be really united as a nation strongenough to drive the Jews into the Mediterranean.Tribalism has precluded a strong united Arab nation.Otherwise, the Arabs, like the Chinese, could forma cohesive political as well as cultural entity. Islamunited the Arab tribes who founded the Muslim empirein Iraq which was the most powerful in the Westernworld at the beginning of the ninth century, muchmore so than Charlemagne's Holy Roman Empireand the East Roman Empire at Constantinople. Thencame slow political decadence; and then the empirehad fallen apart into separate autonomous states untilthe Ottoman Turks created their caliphate in Istanbulin the fourteenth century to begin ruling them by andlarge as such. Like the Chinese, the Arabs speak thesame language, use the same script, have the samereligion, and share the same culture. China hasn't beenBalkanized because of the scholar-officials trainedto maintain the Confucian social order and its peopleshare the same script though they speak differentdialects that are mutually unintelligible. The Arabslack such a bureaucracy.

事實上，以色列安全無虞，因為它的阿拉伯鄰國永遠無法真正團結起來，組成夠強大的統一國家，將猶太人趕入地中海。部落主義妨礙他們組成強大的阿拉伯單一國家，否則，阿拉伯人就能像中國人一般，組成具凝聚力的政治暨文化實體。伊斯蘭教曾經讓阿拉伯部落團結一致，在伊拉克建立起穆斯林帝國。在9世紀初，穆斯林帝國是西方世界最強大的帝國，甚至比查理曼大帝的神聖羅馬帝國，或君士坦丁堡的東羅馬帝國更強大得多。然而，政權逐漸頹傾，帝國崩解成數個自治小部落國家，直到鄂圖曼土耳其於14世紀在伊斯坦堡建立伊斯蘭帝國，開始統治。和中國人一樣，阿拉伯人有共通的語言、書寫、信仰和文化；中國儘管人民有互不相通的方言，若書不同文就會四分五裂，但並沒有分裂成小國，是因為儒教深植人心。阿拉伯民族缺乏如此的官僚體制，沒有深受儒家教育的官僚來維持儒家發揚的人倫社會，所以無法統一。

Tribalism also troubles all other member states ofthe Arab League. None of them can reach a strongunity of purpose to democratize themselves the waythe United States wishes they would. Ben Ali is gone,but Tunisia can't be made a democracy overnight.Mubarak stepped down, but democracy won't cometo Egypt in any foreseeable future. What the world iswitnessing is the removal and replacement of leaders,not an upgrading of the political systems that allowsomeone like Mubarak to stay in power for threedecades and then try to have his son succeed him.

部落主義同樣困擾著阿拉伯聯盟的其他成員，他們無法達成團結，來推動美國冀望的民主。班阿里下台了，但突尼西亞的民主無法立即實現。穆巴拉克下台了，但埃及民主化的未來仍是一片空茫。世界正見證統治者的下台與輪替，而不是看到一個像穆巴拉克掌權30年，而後又要讓兒子接替下去的政權會走上民主大道。（本文作者為資深新聞人及中央社董事長，譯者為中央社編譯）

軍隊強勢和部落主義為埃及民主化障礙文　洪健昭　　中譯　戴雅真

The writing is on the wall for the Egyptians: their President Hosni Mubarak had to go. That much was clear, because Washington had finally decided to gracefully dislodgethe Egyptian autocrat from his 30-year rule overthe Arab world’s most populous country rocked byviolent protests by discontented people demanding aquick political change in Cairo. These people wanteddemocracy, which Mubarak had refused to grant.They believed they could oust Mubarak with UncleSam’s help just as Tunisia’s jasmine revolt got rid ofZine el-Abidine Ben Ali, who had to flee Tunis forexile after a 23-year reign.

對埃及人民來說，他們的總統穆巴拉克註定要下台。事態已經相當明顯，埃及人民發動示威抗議，在這股要求開羅政權儘速變天的聲浪當中，美國也終於決定，讓統治阿拉伯世界最多人口國家達30年之久的強人穆巴拉克，有個不至於太難看的下台。埃及人民要的是民主，穆巴拉克卻沒能給他們。突尼西亞發起茉莉花革命，趕跑專政23年的班阿里，埃及人民相信，在美國的幫助下，他們也能逼走穆巴拉克。

The question Uncle Sam is now facing is who isgoing to replace Mubarak. It's not very difficult toanswer. All Washington needs to do is to let Egypt'sall powerful army pick another Mubarak to continuethe line of authoritarian rule started by Maj. Gen. Mohammed Naguib in 1952. Naguib was shuntedaside by Col. Gamel Abdel Nasser, who was electedpresident in 1956. Nasser did pretty well – so muchso that he was hailed at one time as a candidate forkhalifah or caliph, the successor to Mohammad, thefounder of Islam who unified the Arab nation. Well,Nasser died without realizing his dream of a newcaliphate, one starter effort being to organize theUnited Arab Republic of Egypt and Syria and a looseFederation of Arab Republics of Egypt, Syria andLibya. Anwar Sadat, a vice president who took overfrom Nasser, aligned Egypt with the United States in1972 by ordering most of the 20,000 Soviet militaryadvisers and personnel to leave. Mubarak, a vicepresident, succeeded Sadat, who was assassinated in1981. Vice President Omar Suleiman or Field MarshalMohamed Hussein Tantawi, head of the militarycouncil, may come into power.

軍隊是唯一的安定力量

現在，美國面臨的問題是，誰要來當穆巴拉克的繼任者。這不是個很難回答的問題，華府只需要讓埃及掌握大權的軍隊選出另一個穆巴拉克，延續自1952年納吉布少將開創的專制政權。不久納吉布遭到納瑟上校架空而下台，納瑟本人在1952年當選總統。他做得相當出色，一度被視為「哈里發」的候選人，哈里發就是伊斯蘭教創始人、阿拉伯世界統一者─穆罕默德的繼承人。雖然納瑟死時未能完成當上新哈里發的大業，卻也推動埃及、敘利亞組成阿拉伯聯合共和國（United Arab Republic），並讓埃及、敘利亞和利比亞組成鬆散的阿拉伯聯邦共和國（Federation ofArab Republics）。繼任納瑟的副總統沙達特，在1972年下令境內2萬名蘇聯軍事顧問和人員中的大多數離境，藉此與美國修好。他在1981年遭暗殺身亡，時任副總統的穆巴拉克接任。目前來看，副總統蘇雷曼或軍事委員會主席譚他威則是可能的權力接班人。One thing Uncle Sam has learned is that heshouldn't pick the new Mubarak for the Egyptian armythat is the only stabilizing force in the land, whichboasts the world's oldest civilization. The UnitedSates selected the successor to Saddam Hussein inIraq. That's a very bad idea, and it failed to work. Asa matter of fact, President George W. Bush shouldn'thave started the Iraqi War in the first place. His father,George W. Bush, Sr., was much wiser. He suspendedOperation Desert Storm to let Hussein continue hisiron-fist rule, simply because Iraq, the land of CaliphHarun al-Racid of Arabian Nights fame, would beungovernable without the dictator. The Abbassids, ofwhom al-Racid was one, overthrew the Ummayadcaliphate in Damascus, and moved the capital toBaghdad. Together with Egypt, that produced thegreat leader Saladin who conquered Jerusalem to getthe Crusades kicked off, Syria and Iraq were the threecenters of power of the Arab world until the first oilshock in 1973 which pushed the kingdom of SaudiArabia to the fore.

在孕育著全世界最古老文明之一的埃及，軍隊是唯一的穩定力量。美國在中東政治上總算學到了一件事，就是別再替埃及軍隊選出又一個穆巴拉克。美國替伊拉克挑出海珊（SaddamHussein）的接班人，這是很糟的主意，而且沒有成功。事實上，小布希（George W. Bush）總統根本就不應該發動伊拉克戰爭。他的父親老布希比較聰明，老布希在美軍迫近巴格達時下令停止「沙漠風暴」作戰計畫，讓海珊得以繼續鐵腕統治伊拉克。因為若沒了這名獨裁者，這塊以《一千零一夜》而聞名全球的哈倫‧阿拉希德王（Caliph Harun al-Racid）的統御地將會難以駕馭。要知道，穆罕默德過世後，繼承的奧米亞王朝（Umayyad）被阿拔斯王朝（Abbasids）推翻，將首都從大馬士革遷至巴格達。而在埃及偉大君主薩拉丁（Saladin）的帶領下，阿拉伯人曾經征服耶路撒冷，驅逐十字軍。埃及、敘利亞和伊拉克成為阿拉伯世界的三大權力中心，直到1973年石油危機爆發，才促使沙烏地阿拉伯王國脫穎而出，為一大安定力量。

Just as eagerly as the Crusaders tried to recoverJerusalem, the Americans are attempting to extenddemocracy all over the world, to the Arab world inparticular. But their national interests have madeit necessary for the United States to grow far toocomfortable with an Arab world dominated byunmovable, abusive rulers like Hussein and Mubarak.American support for pro-Western oppressors assuresa steady flow of oil and helps keep Israel, a handiworkof President Harry S. Truman, secure in the hostileMiddle East.

美國國家利益勝過民主價值

美國好像急著收復耶路撒冷的十字軍，迫切想將民主推廣至全世界，尤其是阿拉伯世界。然而，國家利益卻又使美國必須讓海珊及穆巴拉克等冷酷、濫權的統治者坐大。美國支持親西方的暴君，以確保原油供應穩定不絕，並確保杜魯門總統一手催生的國家以色列，能在充滿敵意的中東生存。

In fact, Israel is quite secure, because its Arabneighbors can never be really united as a nation strongenough to drive the Jews into the Mediterranean.Tribalism has precluded a strong united Arab nation.Otherwise, the Arabs, like the Chinese, could forma cohesive political as well as cultural entity. Islamunited the Arab tribes who founded the Muslim empirein Iraq which was the most powerful in the Westernworld at the beginning of the ninth century, muchmore so than Charlemagne's Holy Roman Empireand the East Roman Empire at Constantinople. Thencame slow political decadence; and then the empirehad fallen apart into separate autonomous states untilthe Ottoman Turks created their caliphate in Istanbulin the fourteenth century to begin ruling them by andlarge as such. Like the Chinese, the Arabs speak thesame language, use the same script, have the samereligion, and share the same culture. China hasn't beenBalkanized because of the scholar-officials trainedto maintain the Confucian social order and its peopleshare the same script though they speak differentdialects that are mutually unintelligible. The Arabslack such a bureaucracy.

事實上，以色列安全無虞，因為它的阿拉伯鄰國永遠無法真正團結起來，組成夠強大的統一國家，將猶太人趕入地中海。部落主義妨礙他們組成強大的阿拉伯單一國家，否則，阿拉伯人就能像中國人一般，組成具凝聚力的政治暨文化實體。伊斯蘭教曾經讓阿拉伯部落團結一致，在伊拉克建立起穆斯林帝國。在9世紀初，穆斯林帝國是西方世界最強大的帝國，甚至比查理曼大帝的神聖羅馬帝國，或君士坦丁堡的東羅馬帝國更強大得多。然而，政權逐漸頹傾，帝國崩解成數個自治小部落國家，直到鄂圖曼土耳其於14世紀在伊斯坦堡建立伊斯蘭帝國，開始統治。和中國人一樣，阿拉伯人有共通的語言、書寫、信仰和文化；中國儘管人民有互不相通的方言，若書不同文就會四分五裂，但並沒有分裂成小國，是因為儒教深植人心。阿拉伯民族缺乏如此的官僚體制，沒有深受儒家教育的官僚來維持儒家發揚的人倫社會，所以無法統一。

Tribalism also troubles all other member states ofthe Arab League. None of them can reach a strongunity of purpose to democratize themselves the waythe United States wishes they would. Ben Ali is gone,but Tunisia can't be made a democracy overnight.Mubarak stepped down, but democracy won't cometo Egypt in any foreseeable future. What the world iswitnessing is the removal and replacement of leaders,not an upgrading of the political systems that allowsomeone like Mubarak to stay in power for threedecades and then try to have his son succeed him.

部落主義同樣困擾著阿拉伯聯盟的其他成員，他們無法達成團結，來推動美國冀望的民主。班阿里下台了，但突尼西亞的民主無法立即實現。穆巴拉克下台了，但埃及民主化的未來仍是一片空茫。世界正見證統治者的下台與輪替，而不是看到一個像穆巴拉克掌權30年，而後又要讓兒子接替下去的政權會走上民主大道。（本文作者為資深新聞人及中央社董事長，譯者為中央社編譯）